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What is moving
Each area groups indicators that share a cause. An area turns yellow or red when any of its gauges does. Use the Beginner / Medium / Expert switch at the top to change the language and detail.
How it could unfold
Four stories of how a downturn could start. The bar shows how closely today's readings match each one. It is a pattern match, not a forecast.
Signals combining
How to read this page
- No one can time a downturn. Peaks have often looked calm: low fear, strong gains. These gauges are for readiness and for confirming which story is unfolding.
- Thresholds are drafts. Most are not validated against history. A yellow is "look", a red is "pay attention", neither is "sell".
- Stocks used as stand-ins. Oracle, CoreWeave and Micron stand in for AI-debt and memory-cycle stress because direct credit and memory-price data is paid.
- Information only. This is not personal financial advice. Your own plan, tax position and goals decide what to do.
Sources: US Treasury, CBOE, ECB, multpl.com, stockanalysis.com. Data can be delayed or revised.